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Velu reads Polymarket probabilities, fetches live data from 12 global sources, and runs three independent AI agents to find where the crowd is wrong.
Will the US enter recession before June 30, 2026?
POLYMARKET
32%
$22M volume
VELU AI
41%
↑ BEARISH
⚡ EDGE DETECTED · Δ9pp
"Crowd at 32% is below Goldman (35%) and JPMorgan (40%). GDPNow fell from +2.4% to +0.8% in 10 weeks."
◈
Macro
48%
◆
Quant
43%
◉
Tail Risk
31%
Powered by Velu · 3 agents · Chain of Thought
HOW IT WORKS
Four AI calls in parallel, live data from 12 global sources, explicit reasoning at every step.
Choose from active Polymarket prediction markets. Velu pulls live crowd probability and 24h velocity in real time.
FRED, CME FedWatch, CoinGlass, ECB, Bank of Japan, World Gold Council — 70+ macro indicators in under 2 seconds.
Macro Structuralist, Quantitative, and Tail Risk each run independently with their own framework and probability.
Velu weighs all three analyses, runs a Devil's Advocate pass, and produces the final memo with the explicit edge.
8 ROBUSTNESS FEATURES
Not a chatbot. A structured intelligence system with verifiable reasoning at every layer.
FRED (Fed), CME FedWatch, CoinGlass, ECB rates, Bank of Japan, World Gold Council, CoinGecko, Twelve Data, Atlanta Fed GDPNow. Velu never guesses a number it can look up.
A second AI call actively tries to refute the main thesis. The final probability only stands if it survives the critique.
The Fed has never cut with PCE above 2.5% since 1990 except COVID. BTC is up in 100% of post-halving 6-month windows. Every analysis anchors to verifiable history.
Every prediction is saved. Brier Score computed automatically when markets resolve. 66% accuracy across 47 markets. Nothing is hidden.
Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, CoinGlass. Last 48 hours of relevant headlines classified by sentiment and incorporated into every analysis.
Not just the crowd probability — also its 24h velocity, net buy/sell flow, and institutional smart money signals from Polymarket's CLOB API.
Velu detects inconsistencies between related markets. 98% Fed pause and 32% recession simultaneously? The system flags the implicit contradiction.
When agents converge → high conviction. When they diverge → genuine uncertainty. That divergence is signal.
ACTIVE MARKETS
US Federal Reserve, global equities, crypto, commodities, and macro events across the world's major financial markets.
Will the Fed hold rates unchanged at the May 2026 meeting?
Will Bitcoin exceed $80,000 before September 30, 2026?
Will the US enter recession before June 30, 2026?
Will gold outperform Bitcoin in total return during 2026?
Will NVIDIA beat Q1 FY2026 consensus EPS?
Will US monthly CPI exceed 0.8% in any month of 2026?
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